Hurricane Season: Sum of its Parts
Pretty nice day in the Southeast so far
. Maybe a little rain, but summer is taking hold. National Hurricane Center
declares there are "no tropical cyclones at this time." But on the same page, of course, their "Top News"
predicts an active hurricane season—80% chance of above-normal activity
.
The threat posed by Tropical Storm Alberto
was reduced by the time it reached U.S. shores this week, good news for threatened areas. But as the Climate Prediction Center
explains—
that is, as I understand all the science-ese!—each storm is just one episode in the whole season. Hurricane seasons develop a character from storm to storm, and weather pattern to weather pattern. It's one long storm that builds and subsides—you get your good days, and you get your bad days.
Stay with me, this is interesting. No, really...
"Total Seasonal Activity" is the sum of the intensity and duration of each storm. Warm water is the energy source for storms, and wind patterns determine how storms build. When
ocean water gets warmer, then combines with certain wind patterns, storms develop in greater numbers and intensity. Nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal.
Check out some weather graphics here. (The movies are hypnotic. Or I'm becoming a nerd.) As science marches on, we know more things and can study them in very cool ways. One thing is for sure—the climate is going through some very dynamic behavior.
I'm very interested in reading your experiences with these storms over the last few years. Send 'em in here.



